La Década del ORO
19/03/2010
Apreciamos en esta gráfica de Bloomberg, la evolución durante la última década, de un grupo de las más comunes alternativas de inversión.
Si tomamos el índice de Standard & Poor 500, comprobamos que tuvo la peor performance de su historia, pués cuando comenzó la década “operativa”, el 3 de enero del 2000, su valor era de 1.469,25, y cuando cerró para Navidad del 2009, faltando cuatro días para fin de año, su valor era de 1.125,46. Una performance negativa del 2.6 %.
El Dow Jones perdió el 1% por año, durante el mismo período, y el NASDAQ, a su vez, perdió un lastimoso 5.9 % anual. Si a esta cifra le sumamos el efecto inflacionario del 28.2 %, en base al CPI (Consumer Price Index) de los diez años, concluimos que la performance de la década para portafolios de acciones fue poco alentadora.
En cambio, los commodities, medidos por el índice elaborado por Goldman Sachs, treparon a un promedio anual del 13,6 %.
Pero el que se llevó el premio, fué el oro, menospreciado y generalmente desdeñado por analistas y público inversor en general. ¿Quién no ha leído y oído mil veces, durante estos años : ¿para qué sirve el oro, ni siquiera me da interés?
Los que compraron, por ejemplo,400 onzas a $250.= c/u por un total de u$ 100.000.= en el año 2000, habrían ganado, a fin del 2009, la módica suma de U$ 300.000, o sea el 300% sobre su inversión. ¡Me imagino el grado de preocupación que tiene esta gente al no haber cobrado intereses sobre su posición en oro!
Aquellos que prefirieron apalancar sus inversiones, comprando acciones de compañías mineras auríferas, tuvieron un espectacular rendimiento del 800%, medido por el índice sectorial.
En otros artículos iremos explicando las razones por las que seguimos creyendo que tanto el oro como la plata, son la protección ideal para los políticamente agitados e inflacionarios años que nos esperan, como lo venimos sosteniendo desde hace años.
Ver artículos:
* EURO versus DÓLAR: una carrera con dos perdedores – Setiembre 2005
* Avalancha monetaria - Enero 2007
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